Tokyo: Following a powerful 7.1 magnitude earthquake that struck the southern island of Kyushu, Japan’s earthquake scientists have issued an advisory warning of the potential for a future “megaquake.” The tremor on Thursday injured eight people, although no serious damage was reported. This advisory is the first of its kind since the introduction of a new system developed after the catastrophic 2011 earthquake.
Elevated Earthquake Risk in Japan
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) cautioned that while the probability of a major earthquake has increased following the recent tremor, it does not guarantee that a megaquake will occur. The advisory has raised concerns across the nation, which sits on four major tectonic plates and experiences approximately 1,500 earthquakes annually. Most of these are minor, but larger tremors are always a cause for concern.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering canceling a planned trip to Central Asia in response to the heightened earthquake risk, although no official announcement has been made.
Advanced Preparations Mitigate Damage
During Thursday’s earthquake, traffic lights swayed, cars shook, and dishes fell from shelves, but Japan’s advanced building techniques and well-rehearsed emergency procedures helped minimize damage. The Fire and Disaster Management Agency reported eight injuries, mostly from falling objects.
Japan’s history with earthquakes has led to stringent building codes and disaster preparedness plans. Despite the increased risk, experts emphasize that while one earthquake can raise the likelihood of another, the overall probability remains low.
Historical Context and Future Concerns
Japan’s vulnerability to earthquakes is well-known. The country suffered its most devastating earthquake in recent history in 2011 when a 9.0 magnitude undersea quake off northeastern Japan triggered a tsunami, resulting in around 18,500 deaths or missing persons. The disaster also caused a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant, marking Japan’s worst post-war crisis.
The government has previously estimated that there is a 70% chance of a megaquake striking within the next 30 years. Such an event could potentially devastate a large area along Japan’s Pacific coastline, with experts warning that up to 300,000 lives could be at risk in a worst-case scenario.
The Nankai Trough, located off eastern Japan, is a particularly concerning area. This region has historically been the origin of massive earthquakes, sometimes occurring in pairs, with magnitudes reaching eight or even nine.
Japan remains on high alert as experts continue to monitor seismic activity, urging the public to stay prepared while acknowledging the challenges of predicting earthquakes.
